How Best Bet Works
Master sports betting with data-driven insights. Learn how we calculate Expected Value (EV) and optimal bet sizing to help you make smarter, more profitable bets.
Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value (EV) is the foundation of profitable betting. It tells you how much profit you can expect to make on average for every dollar you bet on a particular pick. Think of it as your long-term return on investment (ROI) for that bet.
Why EV Matters
- • +EV bets make money over time, even if they lose sometimes
- • -EV bets lose money over time, even if they sometimes win
- • A +12% EV bet means you profit $12 for every $100 wagered (on average)
- • Professional bettors only take +EV bets - we do the same for you
The Formula:
Real Example:
Lakers +150 to beat the Warriors. We calculate they have a 45% chance to win.
Try It Yourself:
What's a Good EV?
- • 10%+ EV: Exceptional - rare but very profitable
- • 5-10% EV: Excellent - strong betting opportunity
- • 2-5% EV: Good - solid long-term profit
- • 0-2% EV: Small edge - proceed with caution
- Remember: Even a small 2% EV compounds to significant profit over hundreds of bets!
Kelly Criterion (Smart Bet Sizing)
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that tells you how much to bet based on your advantage and the odds. It maximizes long-term growth while protecting you from betting too much and losing your bankroll. The formula considers both the Expected Value of the bet and the odds to calculate an optimal bet size as a percentage of your bankroll.
Understanding Kelly Sizing:
Kelly calculates the optimal percentage of your bankroll to wager. For example, on a bet with 10% EV at +200 odds, Full Kelly might suggest betting 5% of your bankroll.
Full Kelly vs Half Kelly:
Bet Size Calculator:
Use this tool to see how different bet percentages translate to actual dollar amounts based on your bankroll.
Why Half Kelly?
Full Kelly can be aggressive and lead to large swings. Half Kelly grows your bankroll almost as fast but with much less volatility. It's the sweet spot for most bettors.
The Marathon Strategy: Small Bets Over Time
Successful sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is making many small, positive EV bets over time rather than a few large bets.
Bankroll Growth Comparison:
The Wrong Way
- • Betting 20-50% of bankroll per bet
- • Chasing losses with bigger bets
- • Going "all-in" on favorites
- • Ignoring bet sizing recommendations
The Right Way
- • Betting 1-5% of bankroll per bet
- • Consistent bet sizing using Kelly
- • Focus on long-term profit
- • Track performance and adjust
Putting It All Together
Here's how Best Bet uses these concepts to help you make smarter bets:
We Find +EV Opportunities
We scan hundreds of games and calculate true win probabilities to find bets with positive expected value.
We Show You the EV
For each pick, we display the exact Expected Value percentage so you know your profit potential.
We Recommend Bet Size
Using Half Kelly, we tell you exactly how much to bet based on your bankroll and the edge.
You Track & Grow
Track your bets, monitor performance, and watch your bankroll grow over time with data-driven decisions.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Betting Too Much
Even with a huge edge, betting more than 5% of your bankroll is risky. Stick to Kelly recommendations.
Chasing Losses
You'll have losing streaks. Don't increase bet sizes to "win it back." Trust the process.
Ignoring Bankroll Management
Even profitable bettors go broke with poor bankroll management. Always bet a small % of your total.
Betting on Favorites Only
Value can exist anywhere. Don't ignore underdogs just because they're less likely to win.
Short-Term Thinking
One bad week doesn't mean the system is broken. EV betting is profitable over hundreds of bets.
Ready to Start Betting Smarter?
Join Best Bet and get access to data-driven picks with calculated Expected Value (EV) and optimal bet sizing for every opportunity.